Posted by Dawn Griffin
How Will the 2024 Presidential Election Affect the Real Estate Market?
With the 2024 Presidential election just around the corner, many homebuyers and sellers are understandably wondering how it might impact their plans. Elections always seem to stir up uncertainty, and when it comes to something as significant as real estate, even a little doubt can make people hesitant.
The good news? History offers some insights into what we might expect during and after election season. Let’s break down what you need to know as you navigate the real estate market in the months ahead.
Home Sales: A Brief Slowdown, But Nothing to Worry About
It’s common for the real estate market to slow down in the fall, even in non-election years. After the busy spring and summer, there’s often a bit of a lull as the colder months set in. However, election years tend to exaggerate this effect, with November usually seeing a more noticeable dip in sales.
Economists note that usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year, with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.
But here’s the thing—this slowdown doesn’t last long. Historical data shows that after nine out of the last eleven presidential elections, home sales picked up again the following year. So if you’re thinking about buying or selling, don’t let election jitters hold you back. The market has a strong track record of bouncing back quickly.
Home Prices: A Steady Climb, Even During Election Years
One of the most common concerns during election seasons is whether home prices will drop. However, the reality is quite different. Historically, home prices have proven to be remarkably resilient, even in the face of political uncertainty.
An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.
Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) supports this. After seven of the last eight presidential elections, home prices rose the following year. The only exception was during the housing market crash—a unique and extreme event. Today’s market is much more stable, so it’s likely that home prices will continue to trend upward, just as they have for years.
Mortgage Rates: Expected to Decline Modestly
Mortgage rates are always a hot topic, especially in an election year when the economy and politics are so closely intertwined. However, history shows that mortgage rates often ease a bit leading up to the election. In fact, data from Freddie Mac reveals that in eight of the last eleven presidential elections, mortgage rates dropped between July and November.
Most experts predict a similar trend this year, with rates expected to decline modestly as the year progresses. While a dramatic drop isn’t expected, any decrease in rates could make homebuying more affordable for those looking to make a move.
The Bottom Line for Homebuyers and Sellers
While the 2024 Presidential election may cause some temporary uncertainty in the real estate market, history suggests that its effects will be short-lived. Any slowdown in home sales or fluctuations in mortgage rates are likely to be brief, with the market bouncing back quickly in the following months.
For homebuyers, this could mean a good opportunity to lock in favorable mortgage rates and make a competitive offer. For sellers, you can feel confident that home prices will likely continue their upward trend, even through the election season.
The key is to stay informed and be ready to act when the time is right. Working with an experienced real estate professional will ensure that you’re well-prepared to navigate the market, no matter what political or economic uncertainties arise.
By staying on top of the latest market trends and maintaining a clear perspective, you’ll be in a strong position to achieve your real estate goals, no matter who wins the election.
